NASA's Oct. 15 satellite analysis shows a broad band of warmer-than-normal water stretching across the equatorial Pacific toward South America's coast. Eastern Pacific sea-surface temperatures were about 1.7°C above the long-term average, NASA reported, while NOAA's Oct. 8 outlook put the chance of an event stronger than any since 1950 at 83% for October–December. That is a probability, not a confirmation that a record has been set. El Niño can shift rainfall patterns and ocean conditions across the Americas, but its effects vary by location and season. NASA is combining sea-level, temperature and ocean-color observations to monitor the developing pattern. The satellite maps can show physical signals; they do not replace local forecasts for communities preparing for heat, drought or heavy rain.